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Contents

MACD 使い方

MACDは、「Moving Average Convergence and Divergence」の略で、短期と中長期の2本の指数平滑移動平均線(EMA)を使用して、売買の判断するインジケーターです。MACDはマックディーと読み、日本語では移動平均収束拡散法と言われます。

MACDは、チャートの下のサブウィンドウに表示され、 0を基準に相場トレンドの判定 や MACDの交差のタイミングで売買の判断 をします。

MACDの表示方法

パソコン版 MT4 / MT5 MACD 表示手順

MT4 / MT5画面左側の「ナビゲーター」枠から「インディケータ → オシレーター → MACD」を選択し、適用させたいチャートにドラッグ・アンド・ドロップ(左クリックを押しながら移動して左クリックを離す操作)します。

MACDの設定画面が表示されますが、 MACDはそのままの設定で使用することができます。 「OK」ボタンをクリックしてチャートにMACDを適用させます。

スマホ版 MT4 / MT5 MACD 表示手順

MT4 / MT5アプリの「チャートタブ」からチャート画面を開き、チャート画面上の「f」アイコンをタッチ → インディケータ画面から「メインウィンドウ」をタッチします。

MACD 設定値

MACDの見方

  • 棒グラフ(ヒストグラム)「MACD」: MACD = 短期(12)EMA – 長期(26)EMA
  • 点線のライン「MACDシグナル」: MACDの移動平均線(9MA)
  • EMA: 指数移動平均線
  • MA: 単純移動平均線

MACDを使う理由

  1. 移動平均線のトレンド発生遅延のデメリットを補うため

下記チャートのように、 移動平均線で上昇トレンドの発生を目視で確認した頃には、既に価格が上昇してしまった後 で売買の機会を逃してしまうことがあります。

MACDを利用した取引方法

1. MACDの0を基準に相場のトレンドを判断する取引方法

  • ゼロを中心に MACDが上に表示されている時は、上昇相場に転換(買い目安)
  • ゼロを中心に MACDが下に表示されている時は、下降相場に転換(売り目安)

MACDとシグナルが交差するタイミングで売買判断する取引方法

  • MACDがシグナル線を 下から上に交差 : ゴールデンクロスとなり 「買い」
  • MACDがシグナル線を 上から下に交差 : デッドデンクロスとなり 「売り」

MACDの欠点と欠点を補う方法

MACDの欠点

  • 価格変動幅が小さく横ばいの相場では、”だまし”が多くなる
  • 緩やかな相場では、売買シグナルが出ても精度が弱い

MACDの欠点を補う方法

MACDとストキャスティクスを合わせた売買例

「MACDがプラス圏内」 + 「MACDとシグナルがデッドクロス」 + 「ストキャスティクス70%以上」

「MACDがマイナス圏内」 + 「MACDとシグナルがゴールデンクロス」 + 「ストキャスティクス30%以下」

MACD 使い方 まとめ

    2つの移動平均線を利用したインジケーター 0ラインを基準にMACDが上にある時は「買い」相場 0ラインを基準にMACDが下にある時は「売り」相場 MACDとシグナルがゴールデンクロスになると「買い」 MACDとシグナルがデッドデンクロスになると「売り」 ストキャスティクスと組み合わせた方がリスクが軽減される

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Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD

What Is Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD?

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.

The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD called the “signal line,” is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its signal line and sell – or short – the security when the MACD crosses below the signal line. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls.

Key Takeaways

  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
  • MACD triggers technical signals when it crosses above (to buy) or below (to sell) its signal line.
  • The speed of crossovers is also taken as a signal of a market is overbought or oversold.
  • MACD helps investors understand whether the bullish or bearish movement in the price is strengthening or weakening.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD

The Formula for MACD Is:

MACD is calculated by subtracting the long-term EMA (26 periods) from the short-term EMA (12 periods). An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average. An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average (SMA), which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period.

Learning From MACD

The MACD has a positive value whenever the 12-period EMA (blue) is above the 26-period EMA (red) and a negative value when the 12-period EMA is below the 26-period EMA. The more distant the MACD is above or below its baseline indicates that the distance between the two EMAs is growing. In the following chart, you can see how the two EMAs applied to the price chart correspond to the MACD (blue) crossing above or below its baseline (red dashed) in the indicator below the price chart.

MACD is often displayed with a histogram (see the chart below) which graphs the distance between the MACD and its signal line. If the MACD is above the signal line, the histogram will be above the MACD’s baseline. If the MACD is below its signal line, the histogram will be below the MACD’s baseline. Traders use the MACD’s histogram to identify when bullish or bearish momentum is high.

MACD vs. Relative Strength

The relative strength indicator (RSI) aims to signal whether a market is considered to be overbought or oversold in relation to recent price levels. The RSI is an oscillator that calculates average price gains and losses over a given period of time; the default time period is 14 periods with values bounded from 0 to 100.

MACD measures the relationship between two EMAs, while the RSI measures price change in relation to recent price highs and lows. These two indicators are often used together to provide analysts a more complete technical picture of a market.

These indicators both measure momentum in a market, but, because they measure different factors, they sometimes give contrary indications. For example, the RSI may show a reading above 70 for a sustained period of time, indicating a market is overextended to the buy side in relation to recent prices, while the MACD indicates the market is still increasing in buying momentum. Either indicator may signal an upcoming trend change by showing divergence from price (price continues higher while the indicator turns lower, or vice versa).

Limitations of MACD

One of the main problems with divergence is that it can often signal a possible reversal but then no actual reversal actually happens – it produces a false positive. The other problem is that divergence doesn’t forecast all reversals. In other words, it predicts too many reversals that don’t occur and not enough real price reversals.

“False positive” divergence often occurs when the price of an asset moves sideways, such as in a range or triangle pattern following a trend. A slowdown in the momentum – sideways movement or slow trending movement – of the price will cause the MACD to pull away from its prior extremes and gravitate toward the zero lines even in the absence of a true reversal.

Additional MACD Resources

Are you interested in using MACD for your trades? Check out our own primer on the MACD and Spotting Trend Reversals with MACD for more information.

If you’d like to learn about more indicators, Investopedia’s Technical Analysis Course provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject. You’ll learn basic and advanced technical analysis, chart reading skills, technical indicators you need to identify, and how to capitalize on price trends in over five hours of on-demand video, exercises, and interactive content.

Example of MACD Crossovers

As shown on the following chart, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Some traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering a position to reduce the chances of being “faked out” and entering a position too early.

Crossovers are more reliable when they conform to the prevailing trend. If the MACD crosses above its signal line following a brief correction within a longer-term uptrend, it qualifies as bullish confirmation.

If the MACD crosses below its signal line following a brief move higher within a longer-term downtrend, traders would consider that a bearish confirmation.

Example of Divergence

When the MACD forms highs or lows that diverge from the corresponding highs and lows on the price, it is called a divergence. A bullish divergence appears when the MACD forms two rising lows that correspond with two falling lows on the price. This is a valid bullish signal when the long-term trend is still positive. Some traders will look for bullish divergences even when the long-term trend is negative because they can signal a change in the trend, although this technique is less reliable.

When the MACD forms a series of two falling highs that correspond with two rising highs on the price, a bearish divergence has been formed. A bearish divergence that appears during a long-term bearish trend is considered confirmation that the trend is likely to continue. Some traders will watch for bearish divergences during long-term bullish trends because they can signal weakness in the trend. However, it is not as reliable as a bearish divergence during a bearish trend.

Example of Rapid Rises or Falls

When the MACD rises or falls rapidly (the shorter-term moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average), it is a signal that the security is overbought or oversold and will soon return to normal levels. Traders will often combine this analysis with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or other technical indicators to verify overbought or oversold conditions.

It is not uncommon for investors to use the MACD’s histogram the same way they may use the MACD itself. Positive or negative crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises or falls can be identified on the histogram as well. Some experience is needed before deciding which is best in any given situation because there are timing differences between signals on the MACD and its histogram.

7 macd

Trading with MACD indicator includes the following signals:

MACD lines crossover — a trend is changing
MACD historam staying above zero line — market is bullish, below — bearish.
MACD histogram flipping over zero line — confirmation of a strength of a current trend.
MACD histogram diverges from price on the chart — signal of an upcoming reversal.

MACD is the simplest and very reliable indicators used by many Forex traders.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) has in its base Moving Averages.

It calculates and displays the difference between the two moving averages at any time. As the market moves, moving averages move with it, widening (diverging) when the market is trending and moving closer (converging) when the market is slowing down and possibility of a trend change arise.

Basics behind MACD indicator

Standard indicator settings for MACD (12, 26, 9) are used in many trading systems, and these are the setting that MACD developer Gerald Appel has found to be the most suitable for both faster and slower moving markets. In order to get a more responsive and faster performance from MACD one can can experiment with lowering MACD settings to, for example, MACD (6, 12, 5), MACD (7, 10, 5), MACD (5, 13, 8) etc.
These custom MACD settings will make indicator signal faster, however, the rate of false signals is going to increase.

MACD indicator is based on Moving Averages in their simplest form. MACD measures the difference between faster and slower moving average: 12 EMA and 26 EMA (standard).

MACD line is created when longer Moving Average is subtracted from shorter Moving Average. As a result a momentum oscillator is created that oscillates above and below zero and has no lower or upper limits. MACD also has a Trigger line. Combined in a simple lines crossover strategy, MACD line and trigger line crossover outperforms EMAs crossover.

Besides being early on crossovers MACD also is able to display where the chart EMAs have crossed: when MACD (12, 26, 9) flips over its zero line, if indicates that 12 EMA and 26 EMA on the chart have crossed.

How does MACD indicator work

If to take 26 EMA and imagine that it is a flat line, then the distance between this line and 12 EMA would represent the distance from MACD line to indicator’s zero line.
The further MACD line goes from zero line, the wider is the gap between 12EMA and 26 EMA on the chart. The closer MACD moves to zero line, the closer are 12 and 26 EMA.

MACD histogram measures the distance between MACD line and MACD trigger line.

MACD indicator Formula

MACD = EMA(Close)period1 – EMA(Close)period2
Signal Line = EMA(MACD)period3

where
period1 = standard settings are 12 bars
period2 = standard 26 bars
perid3 = standard 9 bars

The following are the steps to calculate MACD

1. Calculate the 12-days EMA of closing price
2. Calculate the 26-days EMA of closing price
3. MACD = 12-days EMA – 26-days EMA
4. Signal Line = 9-days EMA of MACD

Formula for EMA

EMA = (SC X (CP – PE)) + PE

SC = Smoothing Constant (Number of days)
CP = Current Price
PE = Previous EMA

Trading MACD Divergence

MACD indicator is famous for its MACD Divergence trading method.

Divergence is found by comparing price shifts on the chart and MACD values.
MACD Divergence phenomenon occur as a result of shifting forces on the Forex market.
For example, while Sellers may seem to be dominating the market at the moment and price continues to trend down, there already might be signals for an overall weakening of Sellers power. This key warning moments can be observed with MACD indicator. What Forex traders would see is that despite price making new Lower Lows, MACD doesn’t confirm that and instead registers a Higher Low, signaling that Sellers are running out of steam and a trend change is on its way.

Opposite will be true for Buyers.

How to trade MACD Divergence

When MACD line (on our screenshot it is a blue line) crosses Signal line (red dotted line) – we have a point (top or bottom) to evaluate. With two most recent MACD line tops or bottoms find corresponding tops/bottoms on the price chart. Connect MACD tops/bottoms and chart tops/bottoms.
Evaluate the lines received, as shown on the larger screenshot (click on the small picture to enlarge).

With MACD divergence spotted Enter the market when MACD line crosses over its zero point.
Another entry strategy is to find 2 most recent swings high or low on the chart and draw a trend line trough them; and then set an Entry order on the breakout of that trend line.

MACD divergence trading method used not only to predict trend turning points, but also for trend confirmation. A current trend has high potentials to continue unchanged in case no divergence between MACD and price was established after most recent tops/bottoms evaluation.

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